Vitter Proving to be Difficult Democratic Target

By John McArdle, CQ-Roll Call

Despite months of Democratic attacks on everything from his response to the Gulf oil spill to the criminal record of one of his Congressional staffers, Sen. David Vitter (R) continues to look strong in public polling and turn in million dollar fundraising quarters.

And as the political landscape continues to tip heavily in favor of the GOP, it’s getting harder to see how Democrats will be able to put a Republican-leaning state like Louisiana in play this fall.

As such, CQ Politics is moving the rating of the Louisiana Senate race from Leans Republican to the less competitive category of Likely Republican.

Vitter’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Charlie Melancon , has certainly raised his profile in recent months as the lone Louisiana Democrat in the House has become a leading player when it comes to responding to the oil spill. But recent polling seems to indicate that those efforts have done little to fundamentally change the dynamics of the Senate race.

Three separate polls conducted in June show Vitter with anywhere from a 9 point to a 20 point lead in the race. The most recent poll was taken by Rasmussen Reports on June 24 and showed the senator up by 18 points. That’s higher than the 16 point lead Vitter held on April 7 according to another Rasmussen Report survey that was in the field about two weeks before the oil rig explosion that caused the spill.

Vitter also continues to prove his strength on the fundraising front.

At the beginning of July [Vitter] announced that he had hauled in more than $1 million during the second quarter fundraising period. It was Vitter’s fifth million plus fundraising quarter in a row and gave the senator about $5.5 million in cash on hand as of June 30.

Melancon has yet to release his second quarter fundraising numbers but he had about $2.3 million in cash on hand as of the end of March.

With the clock ticking down on the 2010 election cycle time is running out for Melancon to catch fire. And unless he can give his party some reason to be optimistic soon, Democrats may be more inclined to play defense in the states they already hold rather than try to put into play a state that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried by 19 points in the 2008 presidential race.

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